In the past we blogged about Sarah Palin’s reach with women voters in key swing states. Tonight’s debate will be a turning point for undecided voters who are basing their election decision on what is said and presented tonight. A Washington Post-ABC News poll shows 6 in 10 independent voters think Palin is unqualified for the job. The McCain-Palin ticket is under additional pressure with Barack Obama solidifying leads in battleground blue states such as Michigan and Pennsylvania. In recent days, Obama had already taken leads in several states which voted for President Bush in either 2000 or 2004: New Mexico, Iowa, New Hampshire, and Colorado.

Using Finder! and Maker!, we developed maps that showed the potential Sarah Palin has in securing the important female vote, particularly in her target demographic (women under 50). We first looked at which states had the highest population of women between the ages of 18 and 50, and then examined the correlation of those states which were electing female officials.

States such as California, Texas, and Virginia have a high female voting population, and are electing female Mayors. There is a high population of female voters in battleground states like Utah and Colorado, but they do not generally elect female officials. Based on these demographics, Sarah Palin may need to do some strong campaigning in those battleground states in order to ensure that women vote for the McCain-Palin ticket.

Take a look at how we used Finder! and Maker! on our YouTube channel.

Popularity: 12% [?]

The biggest story in political news lately has been Sarah Palin, John McCain’s choice for Vice President of the United States of America. To understand how McCain’s choice in VP could impact the election we need to look at a few issues, including demographics in the key swing states; specifically Pennsylvania, Ohio, Florida, New Hampshire, Virginia, Colorado, and New Mexico Michigan, Indiana, and North Carolina.

The Palin target demographic seems to be women under the age of 50, which makes up between 12-15% of the total population, which could have a serious impact on the race. This however assumes that the women in this demographic would vote for a McCain/Palin ticket, which is tough to call regardless of the demographics.

Here we have the Census data showing us women between the ages of 18-50 using the thematic map with points showing cities with women serving as Mayor. This doesn’t show a clear correlation between this 18-50 year old women demographic and the number of women that go on to serve in local government, but there are some indicators. Washington DC , Utah, and Georgia all have a very high percentage of this demographic, and yet they have no female Mayors. This seems to suggest that women don’t necessarily vote for women and other factors take priority such as age or policy issues.

The way that women vote is obviously still important and the Palin choice could still have an impact for the McCain Campaign, especially in key swing states noted earlier.

This map shows women ages 18-50 which are likely to vote normalized by total population that is likely to vote, showing us which states would be impacted most by women’s votes . From here was can look at the swing states where this demographic could have the greatest impact (Orange and Yellow States). Based on this, my guess on the battleground states would be Colorado and Virginia followed by New Hampshire, Indiana, and North Carolina.

Popularity: 16% [?]