What’s so special about Cumberland, MD-WV? This energetic, small town is one of a select number of cities around the country that appears to be weathering the housing storm. While in many metropolitan areas housing prices are either stabilizing or are on a downward spiral, Cumberland’s market continues to climb. One indicator of prices, the OFHEO Housing Price Index, shows a growth rate of nearly 11% for the last year. The market is also still quite affordable. Over 80% of the households in that area with the city’s median income can afford homes that are currently up for sale.

Hot housing markets can also be found in large parts of Texas, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and other more localized areas of the country. Below is a heat map showing those hot spots. The cities used to generate the map include those whose OFHEO’s Housing Price index has risen over the last year and Wells Fargo/NAHB Housing Opportunity Index is currently above the national average of 40%. A normalized index was created to weight cities based on their relative ranking on both criteria. Cumberland comes out at the top of the pack.

Hot Housing Markets

Other notable cities on the list include:

The Gazelle: Housing prices in Midland, TX are surging. Over the last year, that city’s OFHEO HPI rose by 12.5%, which is the the higest growth rate out of all cities on the list. On the downside, the market appears to be out of reach for many who live in that city. It’s HOI is only 41.2 and declining.

Best on a Budget: The most affordable market on the list with an HOI of 87.5 is Indianapolis, IN. Prices in this market though, have risen at only a modest rate in the past year. The city’s HPI grew by just .7%.

Big City Sizzler: Austin, TX is one of the larger metro areas on the list whose housing prices are growing at a relatively high rate and it’s housing remains more affordable than the national average. This 16th most populated city’s HPI increased 7.2% and it’s HOI is currently around 53.1.

Housing Price Indices, Housing Opportunity Indices and other market attributes for all 76 cities on the list are available for interactive mapping at geocommons.

Popularity: 11% [?]

The Realtytrac 3d Quarter foreclosure numbers released this week paint a grim picture for the nation’s housing market. Unprecedented foreclosure rates were reported for numerous cities. In Stockton, CA, the leader of the pack, an astounding 1 in 31 households filed for foreclosure last quarter.

What is also unsettling is the geographic pervasiveness of the problem. As James Saccacio, the CEO of the Realtytrac noted this week: “…increasing foreclosure activity was not limited to just a few hot spots.”

The maps below show foreclosure rates and trends in filings for the top 98 largest metropolitan areas (lower 48 states), based on Realtytrac’s numbers. Pan across the maps to identify hotspots by city or zoom out to get a more general spatial perspective. Top rankings are provided beneath each map.

Foreclosure Rates

Stockton, CA ~ 1 in 31

Detroit/Livonia/Dearborn, MI ~ 1 in 33

Riverside/San Bernadino, CA ~ 1 in 43

Sacramento, CA ~ 1 in 48

Las Vegas/Paradise, NV ~ 1 in 48

Percent Change in Property Foreclosure Files (2nd to 3d Quarter 2007)

Richmond, VA ~ 224%

Wilmington, DE-NJ ~ 202%

Springfield, MA ~ 151%

Boston/Quincy, MA ~ 146%

Cambridge/Newton/Framington, MA ~ 132%

Percent Change in Property Foreclosure Files (3d Quarter 2006 to 3d Quarter 2007)

Bethesda/Frederick/Gaithersburg, MD ~ 1640%

Cambridge/Newton/Framington, MA ~ 1552%

Boston/Quincy, MA ~ 1274%

Springfield, MA ~ 1169%

Essex, MA ~ 994%

Popularity: 11% [?]

Making the News

Here’s an eye-catching statistic: “Foreclosures cost neighbors 223 billion dollars.” This statistic comes from a study just released by the Center for Responsible Lending and its drawing a lot of attention. In their study, they take an unprecedented look at the spillover effects of the recent explosion in foreclosures (2005-2006). They look specifically at the devaluation in property values that the neighbors of those properties are likely to incur and the losses to communities as a result of depreciating property tax bases.

The numbers coming out of the study are ominous. They cite that over 44 million homes in the United States will experience property devaluation as a result of foreclosures in their neighorhoods. Fourty-two counties in the United States can expect to see their property tax base erode by more than $1 billion. And households located in proximity to lost properties could see the value of their property decrease by $5,000, on average.

What parts of the country will get hardest hit?

To examine this, the county level statistics statistics in the Center for Responsible Lending study were geocoded and the hotspots mapped. It should be noted that while their analysis is based on census tract data, the numbers presented in their report are at the county and state level. Further, they provide statistics for only those counties contained in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). A full description of the data and the methodology they employ can be found here on their website.

The map below shows which parts of the country could see large property devaluations and tax base erosion as a result of foreclosure spillovers. The top ten counties ranked in order are: Los Angeles, Ca; Cook County, Il; Kings, NY; Miami-Dade, FL; Queens, NY; Orange, CA; Bronx, NY; Broward, FL; Maricopa, AZ; and New York, NY. Los Angeles county clearly dominates: It’s total devaluation is nearly double that of the second ranked Cook county.

Pan around the map to see the other hotspots, in the Chicago area, the northeast and Florida.

Total Property Devaluation from Foreclosure Spillover Effects

If you are a homeowner, you don’t want to live in the following counties: Kings; NY, Hudson, NY; Queens, NY; Miami-Dade, FL; Bronx, NY; Los Angeles, CA; Manassas Park, VA; Passaic, NJ; New York, NY; and Prince Georges, MD. Those are are the top ten counties ranked by average property value loss per household affected by the spillovers. The map below shows a richer illustration of the geographic aspects of the problem.

Average Decrease in Property Value Per Household Affected

A Slightly Different Look At Things

Where can a single foreclosure be expected to result in the largest impact on property values? To get at this, the study’s numbers on total property devaluation and houses lost due to foreclosures were used to create an index: property tax erosion per foreclosure.

The answer: New York, NY. On average, every foreclosure in this area can be expected to result in a 18.8 million dollar decline in the county’s tax base, due to spillover effects alone! The top ten counties, according to the index, are:

New York, NY ~ $18,824,604

Kings, NY ~ 3,189,975

San Francisco, CA ~ 2,806,025

Bronx, NY ~ 2,744,213

Queens, NY ~ 1,801,715

Hudson, NY ~ 1,459,685

Alexandria, VA ~ 1,362,766

District of Columbia, DC ~ 1,127,907

Arlington, VA ~ 1,106,435

Suffolk, MA ~ 1,040,268

Popularity: 13% [?]