Iowa caucuses are just three days away and even with near constant media coverage; huge amount of personal time and campaign money spent by candidates from either party, its not yet clear who may win the Iowa Caucuses. Nearly all the recent polls put the top three democratic candidates in a virtual tie while Romney and Huckabee polling numbers are within statistical margin of error.

The first-in-the-nation Caucus state with a total population of over 2.9 million of whom nearly 83% are white, has 600 thousand registered democrats, 550 thousand registered republicans and over 700 thousand independents, a combined voting age population of over 1.8 million. And yet, less than 5 to 7% of these voters particiate in these caucuses. Such low turn-out is understandble. Unlike primaries, the Caucuse demand substantial amount of time, patience and committment from those who may participate. Add to that, the time when Caucuses take place (7 pm local time), inclement weather conditions with frozen snow on the ground and bitterly cold temperatures, only a tiny minority, between 100 thousand to 135 thousand, may show up for the process of selecting winners. So who are these brave souls who could be the likely Caucus-goers? We at FortiusOne decided to map the spatial dimension of the likely Caucus-goers based on Census population/demographics, NOAA weather forecast and the past attendance records. The estimated distribution of likely Caucus-goers can be viewed on an interactive map .
Pan and zoom-in to explore the distribution at various geographic resolutions. A zoomin view showing distribution around Des Moines and surrounding areas as well as eastern half of Iowa is shown below.

Come back and visit us to see the results of the Iowa Caucus on 3rd January, 2008.

Popularity: 12% [?]

Romney campaign spent more than $56 million (see the note at the end) in the first 9 months of 2007 in nearly 1,300 zipcode area of more than 740 cities across the lower 48 states. By far they have outspent major candidates of either party. In the two crucial caucus/primary states of Iowa and New Hampshire, Romney campaign have spent substantially higher amounts, $3.1 million in New Hampshire and $ 2.4 million in Iowa.

The top five states ranked by the amount of spending
1. VA $17.5 million
2. MA $ 12.7 million
3. MD $4.3 million
4. CA $3.8 million
5. NH $3.1 million
These five states account for nearly 75% of the spending. The top five are followed by Florida ($2.5 million) and Iowa. That may be one of the reasons that Romney leads polls in the republican primary races in both these states.

The top five services for which Romney campaign paid nearly $29 million, account for more than half of total spending. The five services are:
1. Media $12.7 million (TV ads)
2. Payroll services/insurance $5.1
3. Printing $3.9 million
4. Credit card $3.8 million
5. Travel $3.4 million

Five cities where they have spent the most are:
1. Alexandria, VA $14 million (for media and other services)
2. Boston, MA $8.8 million (Office rent, salary and other services
3. Poolesville, MA $3.8 million (Payroll service/insurance)
4. Dublin, NH $2.7 million (printing and postage)
5. San Francisco, CA $2.4 million (Credit cards)

Des Moines, IA with more than $1.1 million ranks 9th while Concord, NH ($262 thousand) comes in at 23rd.

Romney campaign spending by zipcode: Jan-Sep, 2007

Explore campaign spending data/maps for Romney or for other Presidential candidates from both parties on GeoCommons by using keywords Campaign Spending or Campaign Finance.

Note: Campaign spending $ amounts are based on Line SB23s from the quarterly campaign finance reports filed by each candidate with the Federal Election Commission where Line SB23 lists each and every item/service costing few pennies to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The data for this map was downloaded the week following 15th October when it was published by FEC. Campaigns are known to update their reports, for the latest report go to FEC website.

Popularity: 10% [?]

It’s almost 125 years ago that the first workingmen’s holiday was celebrated (Tuesday, September 5, 1882) in New York. Over the next dozen years nearly 27 states recognized this holiday and in 1894, the U.S. Congress enacted it as a Federal holiday.

Among many things, the holiday has come to symbolize the unofficial end of summer, the beginning of government budget battles, serious politicking and ever busy cycle of campaign fund raising

And talking of campaign fund raising, on this Labor day holiday, one may wonder the degree to which Labor Union's have any influence on today’s politics? According to Dept. of Labor the rate of union membership has declined steadily from 20.1% of total workforce in 1988 to just 12% in 2006 (15.4 million). With decreasing membership dues; can the Labor Unions, as special interest group PACs (Political Action Committee) have any sway over what happens on the Capitol? And how do they (318 PACs strong) measure against other special interest group PACs from the Corporate world (1,697 PACs) and Trade groups (1,033 PACs). Zoom in and pan to explore the maps below that show the spatial distribution, as on 2nd Sept, 2007, of political donations to Senators and Congressmen, from both parties, by these three special interest groups. The map data is available on Geocommons for downloads.

Spatial distribution of Labor donations by recipients

The top five recipients from Labor PACs are: Congresswoman Laura Richardson, (CA District 37;~$310k); Speaker Nancy Pelosi, (CA District 8; ~$194K); Congressman Joseph Sestak (PA District 7; ~$151K); Congressman Joseph Donnely (IN District 2; ~$140K); Congressman Steven Kagen (WI District 8; ~$133K)

What is surprising is that Democrats also do well with Trade Groups ($15 mill) and Corporate PACs ($19.3 mill).

Spatial distribution of Trade Groups donations by recipients

The top five recipients from Trade PACs are: House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, (MD District 05; ~$347K); Senator Max Baucus (MT; ~$331K); House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel (NY District 5; ~ $310K); Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, (KY; ~$273K); Senator Norm Coleman (MN; ~$242K)

Compare that to Republicans who have received 11.8 mill from Trade and $18.9 mill from Corporations so far.

Spatial distribution of Corporate donations by recipients

The top five recipients from Corporate PACs are: Senator Max Baucus (MT; ~$636K); Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (KY, ~$631K); House Ways and Means Chairman Charles Rangel (NY District 15; ~$576K); House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (MD District 5; ~$562K); Senator Mark Pryor (AR; ~$459K)

Of the three groups, Labor has given the smallest share of campaign contributions ($13.5 mill); and overwhelmingly, by a ratio of 11 to 1, to Democrats. On the other hand the Corporate and Trade PACs appear to give to both parties in near equal proportions. The Corporate PAC contributions at $38.7 million is the highest, compare that to Trade Group PACs at $27.39 million. If campaign money is one way to measure political influence, Labor has much to worry about. What do you think?

FortiusOne

Popularity: 49% [?]