There has been a lot of talk about Barack Obama’s tax plan this political season. The biggest question seems to be, who will see their taxes increase? Well we decided to take a closer look at WHERE in the U.S. people will be most affected by the Obama’s tax increase.

First, to clarify, families with an income above $250,000 dollars would see their tax rates return the levels from the 1990’s. According to the Obama campaign, this tax increase will affect about 2% of the population.

So where are these people who earn $250,000? Are they from Republican or Democratic states? Are they concentrated or dispersed?

Since the US Census only provides data for incomes of $200,000 or more, I decided to look at house prices. An individual or family earning $250,000 a year could afford a home valued at about $1 million so we thought that, aside from the obvious margin of error, homes valued at $1 million or more would be a good indicator of who would be affected by Obama’s tax increase. The U.S. Census 2007 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates provides the number of $1 Million+ Owner Occupied Housing Units by state and county. After uploading that data to Finder!, we played around with some maps in Maker!and found some interesting patterns.

See the datasets (states, counties) and map.

Most of the states that had the most $1 Million + Homes were no surprise, however a few were unexpected. Take a look…the first map shows the number of $1 Million + Homes per state as well as 50 counties with the most $1 Million + Homes and the second shows just the counties have the highest number of $1 Million + Homes.

See the datasets (states, counties) and map.

It’s interesting that some of the states with the most homes only have one county that appears in the top 50 list. These counties, such as King County, WA, Maricopa County, AZ, Fulton County, GA, Hennepin County, MN, and Cook County, Il, have more than a third of all of the $1 Million + Homes in their state.

See the datasets (states, counties) and map.

So we know where the people are. Now, how might that affect the election?

Let’s take a look at the most current presidential election polls from USA Election Polls. This map shows that many of the states with the highest percent of $1 Million + Homes are also leaning toward Obama in this year’s election. In other words, the states that have the highest percent of residents that earn over $250,000 and therefore will be most affected by Obama’s tax increases are in states that are voting for Obama.

Of course, a few of those states are highly contested states including Florida, Virginia, and Colorado. Why is that? Well, its important to point out that the percent of million dollar home owners is only around 2% so they are not going to have a huge impact on an election. However, this demographic may be more likely to vote in an election than those earning less money.

See the datasets for states and polls.

The pattern that million dollar home owners tend to live in democratic areas, is also evident at the county level. This map shows the top 50 counties based on who they voted for in the 2004 presidential election. Of the 50 counties, 30 voted for Kerry and 16 voted for Bush. Most of those counties that voted for Bush are in Southern California, Texas, New Jersey, and Illinois. All but Texas voted for Kerry and are in no threat from turning red this year. Of course, taxes did not play as big a role in the election in 2004.

See the dataset and map.

So why is the McCain campaign making such a big issue of the Obama tax plan? Since it will affect mostly people in blue states, maybe they hope to change some minds there. However it seems that such a scenario is unlikely even though people who earn more money do tend to vote Republican. Exit polls from 2004 show that those who earned $50,000 or more voted Republican.

Perhaps the Obama tax plan, which claims it will give tax breaks to those earning less than $200,000, may persuade some of the 98% + of those in the red states who would qualify to vote for Obama. By appealing to the $200,000 earners, maybe Obama is attempting to raise the democratic appeal to income levels above $50,000. It will be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday, especially to see how the richest counties vote this time around.

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