Key Finding #6
The overall trend of violence in Iraq has been moving gradually east towards the Iranian border. In Afghanistan, more recent violence has been occurring in the southeast and northeast portions of the country. The map below shows which parts of Iraq and Afghanistan have seen the greatest increases in IED fatalities during the post-surge period. Polygon heights indicate the absolute changes in IED fatalities by province for each country and the colors indicate the direction of change, i.e. yellow shows decreases and red shows increases. Changes are measured between two periods, the first being April, 2007 to September, 2007 and the second being October, 2007 to March, 2008.

Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan (Oct 07 – March 08) on Finder!

Figure 15: Absolute Change in IED Attacks, Post-Surge The map illustrates the shift in violence (measured in IED fatalities) from west to east in Iraq and in the south and northeast in Afghanistan. Also highlighted is the decrease in violence in most Iraqi provinces while there is an increase in violence for a large share of Afghan provinces.

Popularity: 8% [?]

Key Finding #5
From January of 2005 until March of 2008, there were a total of 487 reported attacks on energy infrastructure. In that time, the highest number of attacks was in the first quarter of 2005 and the smallest number was in the first quarter of 2008. The decrease from 2005 to 2008 was almost 70% while the total number in all other categories increased by 40%. While overall attacks on energy targets have decreased, there has been an increase in the share of attacks on pipelines since the surge.

Figure 10: Number of Attacks on Energy Infrastructure Per Quarter from January of 2005 to March of 2008 in Iraq
Attacks on energy infrastructure one year before the surge and one year after (using April 2007 as the beginning date for the post surge time period) show a pattern more similar to that of total attacks. Both decreased by around 25% in total attacks for each time period.


Figure 11: Percent Decrease in Attacks Before and After Surge
The number of attacks on energy infrastructure before and after the surge decreased from 149 to 112. However, attacks on pipeline remained the same; 24 attacks in the year before the surge and 24 attacks in the year after the surge. Therefore, the share of pipeline attacks in total energy attacks was greater post surge.


Figure 12: Percent Decrease in Attacks on Pipelines before and after Surge Maker! was also used to display the change in violence over time by layering 2 datasets together in one map.


Link to Map

Figure 13: Attacks on Pipelines and other Energy Infrastructure in Iraq, Pre-Surge

Link to Map
Figure 14: Attack on Pipelines and other Energy Infrastructure in Iraq, Post-Surge

Datasets:
Pre-Surge Pipeline Attacks, Iraq, April 06- March 07
Pre-Surge Attacks on Energy Infrastructure, Iraq, April 06-March07
Post-Surge Attacks on Pipelines, Iraq, April 07-March 08
Post-Surge Attacks on Energy Infrastructure, Iraq, April 07-March 08

Popularity: 7% [?]

Key Finding #4
The percentage of total attacks that are IED related has increased by 13.19% in Afghanistan, and 14.75% in Iraq, from the beginning of 2005 to the end of the 1st quarter of 2008. The pre-surge average for the percentage of IED attacks in Afghanistan was 18.81% and 35.66% in Iraq. After the surge, averages show that 23.76% of attacks in Afghanistan were IED attacks and 41.59% of attacks in Iraq were IED attacks. Both countries are favoring IED attacks over other types of attacks such as suicide bombing and assassinations.

Figure 1: Percentage of IED Attacks to Total Attacks. Shows increase in the usage of IED’s in attacks in both Iraq and Afghanistan. Break in the Chart shows the break between pre-surge and post-surge.

Table 1: Percentage of attacks by type of attack by country from 2005 to the end of Q1 2008

Interestingly, suicide attacks in Afghanistan have been increasing as a percentage of total attacks, and decreasing in Iraq. This shows that Afghanistan is seeing an increase in both IED attacks and suicide bombings, while suicide attacks in Iraq are falling. This could indicate a move of more radical elements from Iraq to Afghanistan.

Figure 2: Percentage of Suicide Attacks Compared to all Attacks. It shows the percentage of suicide attacks compared to all attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan. The break in the chart shows the break between pre-surge and post-surge data.

After doing an analysis using the spreadsheet of the violence data, Maker! was then used to present findings visually as well as show the spatial aspect of the trends.

Figure 3: IED Attacks as Percent of All Attacks for Afghanistan

Figure 4: IED Attacks as Percentage of all Attacks for Iraq

The dataset for these maps can be found here.

Here we can see the locations that IEDs are most heavily utilized. These maps show the percentage of IED attacks compared to total attacks for both Iraq and Afghanistan, and are drawn to the same scale. Iraq IED attacks are centralized around Baghdad and the main roads leading to other major cities, whereas the IED attacks in Afghanistan are dispersed mostly near the Pakistan border.

Popularity: 9% [?]

While there has been a shift in percent change in violence from Iraq to Afghanistan, in total violence, Afghanistan is dwarfed by Iraq. Since the surge, the total number of attacks in Iraq is equal to 5465 attacks while Afghanistan is at 1104 attacks. Tables 1 and 2 support this conclusion. The figure below provides a visual perspective of Tables 1 and 2 and highlights the difference in the magnitude of Attacks between Iraq and Afghanistan and for the pre and post-surge periods.

Figure 3: Total Violence, Pre and Post-Surge, For Afghanistan and Iraq.

In order to communicate the trends spatially, the data was downloaded from Finder! as a shape file and then used in ESRI’s ArcScene to create three dimensional maps. The maps below show where in each country the levels of attacks and fatalities have been the highest. Darker red hues indicate higher numbers of fatalities and the heights of the polygons depict the number of attacks. The maps look down on Iraq and Afghanistan from the north and northeast. One can see that in both the pre and post-surge periods, the distribution of attacks and fatalities is spatially skewed. In Iraq the highest levels have been in the northern and eastern provinces, while in Afghanistan they have been in the southern and southeastern areas.


Figure 4: Number of Attacks and Fatalities Pre-Surge (Finder! link)


Figure 5: Number of Attacks and Fatalities Post-Surge (Finder! link)

Popularity: 6% [?]