Violence in Iraq and Afghanistan- Pre and Post “Surge”: PART V
October 29th, 2008by Bill Greer
Key Finding #5
From January of 2005 until March of 2008, there were a total of 487 reported attacks on energy infrastructure. In that time, the highest number of attacks was in the first quarter of 2005 and the smallest number was in the first quarter of 2008. The decrease from 2005 to 2008 was almost 70% while the total number in all other categories increased by 40%. While overall attacks on energy targets have decreased, there has been an increase in the share of attacks on pipelines since the surge.
Figure 10: Number of Attacks on Energy Infrastructure Per Quarter from January of 2005 to March of 2008 in Iraq
Attacks on energy infrastructure one year before the surge and one year after (using April 2007 as the beginning date for the post surge time period) show a pattern more similar to that of total attacks. Both decreased by around 25% in total attacks for each time period.
Figure 11: Percent Decrease in Attacks Before and After Surge
The number of attacks on energy infrastructure before and after the surge decreased from 149 to 112. However, attacks on pipeline remained the same; 24 attacks in the year before the surge and 24 attacks in the year after the surge. Therefore, the share of pipeline attacks in total energy attacks was greater post surge.
Figure 12: Percent Decrease in Attacks on Pipelines before and after Surge Maker! was also used to display the change in violence over time by layering 2 datasets together in one map.
Link to Map
Figure 13: Attacks on Pipelines and other Energy Infrastructure in Iraq, Pre-Surge
Link to Map
Figure 14: Attack on Pipelines and other Energy Infrastructure in Iraq, Post-Surge
Datasets:
Pre-Surge Pipeline Attacks, Iraq, April 06- March 07
Pre-Surge Attacks on Energy Infrastructure, Iraq, April 06-March07
Post-Surge Attacks on Pipelines, Iraq, April 07-March 08
Post-Surge Attacks on Energy Infrastructure, Iraq, April 07-March 08
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October 29th, 2008 at 1:29 pm
Nice use of data.
So you conclude, then, that the surge worked? Debatable, but even if true, now what? A stable, Western-oriented democracy is soon to follow?
I doubt it. Here’s why: http://kevjot.blogspot.com/2008/10/surge-was-success-call-me-skeptic.html
November 3rd, 2008 at 2:46 pm
[…] by %70, although during the same time period the total number of attacks increased by %40. Blog Post Here 6. The overall trend of violence in Iraq has been moving gradually east towards the Iranian […]