Last night in the CNN/Youtube Republican debate, he charmed the audience with his quick wit and clever oratory. When asked whether Jesus would support the death penalty, Huckabee responded without pause: “Jesus was too smart to ever run for office.” Thunderous applauses of approval from the audience also followed many of his answers to probing questions from Youtubers and host, Anderson Cooper.

In the pivitol Iowa polls, the “Huckster” is currently neck-in-neck with Romney: the long time leader of the pack in that state. Since July, the Arkansas Governor’s poll ratings in Iowa have shot up dramatically; other Republican presidential hopefuls have seen diminishing support over the same time period.

The graph below shows monthly average ratings from major political polls taken by organizations like Gallup, the American Research Group and the America Reporter and Strategic Vision (source of average poll results: www.usaelectionpolls.com). The results of a poll conducted by Rasmussen Reports on November 27, 2007 are also shown on the figure. Link here to see the data in Swivel.

Average Percent Support by Month by Candidate

What about the rest of the country? The maps below show average percent support for Romney and Huckabee for the month of November; brighter shades of red indicate higher percentages. Not surprising, Romney’s greatest share is in Utah. But, he also has strong backing in New Hampshire, another political bellweather state like Iowa. The top five states for Romney, not including Iowa, are: Utah (65%), New Hampshire (33%), Michigan (25%), Nevada (21%) and South Carolina (21%).

Percent Support for Romney

Huckabee’s strongest shares of support, outside of the Hawkeye state and presumably Arkansas, appear to be in the South and Southeast. His top five states, according to November polls and excluding Iowa, are: Texas (16%), Missouri (12%), North Carolina (12%), South Carolina (12%) and Wisconsin (11%). And BTW, those states share something in common with Iowa: they are all places where Huckabee is gaining swift momentum.

Percent Support for Huckabee

Popularity: 7% [?]

The Realtytrac 3d Quarter foreclosure numbers released this week paint a grim picture for the nation’s housing market. Unprecedented foreclosure rates were reported for numerous cities. In Stockton, CA, the leader of the pack, an astounding 1 in 31 households filed for foreclosure last quarter.

What is also unsettling is the geographic pervasiveness of the problem. As James Saccacio, the CEO of the Realtytrac noted this week: “…increasing foreclosure activity was not limited to just a few hot spots.”

The maps below show foreclosure rates and trends in filings for the top 98 largest metropolitan areas (lower 48 states), based on Realtytrac’s numbers. Pan across the maps to identify hotspots by city or zoom out to get a more general spatial perspective. Top rankings are provided beneath each map.

Foreclosure Rates

Stockton, CA ~ 1 in 31

Detroit/Livonia/Dearborn, MI ~ 1 in 33

Riverside/San Bernadino, CA ~ 1 in 43

Sacramento, CA ~ 1 in 48

Las Vegas/Paradise, NV ~ 1 in 48

Percent Change in Property Foreclosure Files (2nd to 3d Quarter 2007)

Richmond, VA ~ 224%

Wilmington, DE-NJ ~ 202%

Springfield, MA ~ 151%

Boston/Quincy, MA ~ 146%

Cambridge/Newton/Framington, MA ~ 132%

Percent Change in Property Foreclosure Files (3d Quarter 2006 to 3d Quarter 2007)

Bethesda/Frederick/Gaithersburg, MD ~ 1640%

Cambridge/Newton/Framington, MA ~ 1552%

Boston/Quincy, MA ~ 1274%

Springfield, MA ~ 1169%

Essex, MA ~ 994%

Popularity: 13% [?]

1 = 100? It is according to the Drug Quantity Table, where 1 gram of crack cocaine equals 100 grams of powder cocaine; part of the drug equivalency formulae born out of the 80s overblown media hype and of mandatory minimum sentencing law passed by the Congress in 1986. Although prison sentence for trafficking/possession of 10 gram of crack cocaine is not 100 times that for 1 Kilo of powder cocaine, it can still lead to a jail sentence that is nearly 10 times longer. However, that is not the only problem with the sentence that is partly determined by the Sentencing Guidelines and a so called Base Offense Level (BOL) table. It so happens that trafficking in small amount of cocaine occurs mainly in inner-city neighborhoods and by relatively young African-Americans. And yes, they form the bulk (85%) of prison population that is serving very long jail sentences.

The U.S. Sentencing Commission (USSC), an independent body within Justice dept that is charged with developing prison sentencing guidelines, is trying to address the disparity between the longer jail sentences for crack cocaine offense and those for other illegal drugs such as powder cocaine. The USSC decided to decrease crack cocaine related BOL by two. For eg., a formerly level 16 BOL (with a mandatory prison term of 2 years) is now 14 and thus could lead to zero jail-time. This has been widely commented and welcomed by Federal Public and Community Defenders, NAACP, ACLU and other civic groups.

However, that is not what has riled up the Administration’s Justice Dept., it is the USSC’s proposal to make the changes in BOL retroactive. They object vehemently to many findings from the USCC’s report titled Analysis of the Impact of the Crack Cocaine Amendment If Made Retroactive, especially they argue that it would lead to overburdening of the district courts with the petitions from thousands of inmates who are eligible to reduction in prison sentence and other issues such as overcrowding of half-way houses, increase of workload for the U.S. Martials, and release of violent criminals into localities that could suffer from renewed drug trade and violence associated with that, especially in the light of the FBI statistics showing increasing rates of violent crimes over the last three years.

It is not clear when the USSC is likely to vote on the issue of retroactive reduction of crack cocaine sentences, whenever that happens, it would lead to release of large number of inmates. Therefore we at FortiusOne thought that the public may want to discover the geographic dimension of the possible early release of the crack cocaine inmates…Below is a heat map of crack prisoners who are eligible for release after one year. Explore on GeoCommons data for other time periods along with number of defendants by the type drug offenses and the average/median prison sentences by federal district courts for drug crimes.

Crack offenders eligible for early release within a year

Popularity: 33% [?]

Making the News

Here’s an eye-catching statistic: “Foreclosures cost neighbors 223 billion dollars.” This statistic comes from a study just released by the Center for Responsible Lending and its drawing a lot of attention. In their study, they take an unprecedented look at the spillover effects of the recent explosion in foreclosures (2005-2006). They look specifically at the devaluation in property values that the neighbors of those properties are likely to incur and the losses to communities as a result of depreciating property tax bases.

The numbers coming out of the study are ominous. They cite that over 44 million homes in the United States will experience property devaluation as a result of foreclosures in their neighorhoods. Fourty-two counties in the United States can expect to see their property tax base erode by more than $1 billion. And households located in proximity to lost properties could see the value of their property decrease by $5,000, on average.

What parts of the country will get hardest hit?

To examine this, the county level statistics statistics in the Center for Responsible Lending study were geocoded and the hotspots mapped. It should be noted that while their analysis is based on census tract data, the numbers presented in their report are at the county and state level. Further, they provide statistics for only those counties contained in Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs). A full description of the data and the methodology they employ can be found here on their website.

The map below shows which parts of the country could see large property devaluations and tax base erosion as a result of foreclosure spillovers. The top ten counties ranked in order are: Los Angeles, Ca; Cook County, Il; Kings, NY; Miami-Dade, FL; Queens, NY; Orange, CA; Bronx, NY; Broward, FL; Maricopa, AZ; and New York, NY. Los Angeles county clearly dominates: It’s total devaluation is nearly double that of the second ranked Cook county.

Pan around the map to see the other hotspots, in the Chicago area, the northeast and Florida.

Total Property Devaluation from Foreclosure Spillover Effects

If you are a homeowner, you don’t want to live in the following counties: Kings; NY, Hudson, NY; Queens, NY; Miami-Dade, FL; Bronx, NY; Los Angeles, CA; Manassas Park, VA; Passaic, NJ; New York, NY; and Prince Georges, MD. Those are are the top ten counties ranked by average property value loss per household affected by the spillovers. The map below shows a richer illustration of the geographic aspects of the problem.

Average Decrease in Property Value Per Household Affected

A Slightly Different Look At Things

Where can a single foreclosure be expected to result in the largest impact on property values? To get at this, the study’s numbers on total property devaluation and houses lost due to foreclosures were used to create an index: property tax erosion per foreclosure.

The answer: New York, NY. On average, every foreclosure in this area can be expected to result in a 18.8 million dollar decline in the county’s tax base, due to spillover effects alone! The top ten counties, according to the index, are:

New York, NY ~ $18,824,604

Kings, NY ~ 3,189,975

San Francisco, CA ~ 2,806,025

Bronx, NY ~ 2,744,213

Queens, NY ~ 1,801,715

Hudson, NY ~ 1,459,685

Alexandria, VA ~ 1,362,766

District of Columbia, DC ~ 1,127,907

Arlington, VA ~ 1,106,435

Suffolk, MA ~ 1,040,268

Popularity: 15% [?]