IED Attacks in Iraq

Is the U.S. winning the war in Iraq? The Bush Administration continues to say yes. Most recently, they are touting a drop in U.S. fatalities in Iraq, stating that American deaths in the war-torn country in July were at their lowest levels since last November and sectarian violence (ignoring the horrific massacre of last Tuesday) has declined.

Others are more skeptical. Some point out that car and truck bombings are not included in the administration’s tabulations of violence in Iraq and therefore, the reports coming out of the government show inflated success. There also concerns about the proliferated use of Improvised Explosive Devices(IEDs) by insurgents, and the toll they are having on U.S. troups and other innocent people in Iraq.

Wikipedia defines an IED as a “device placed or fabricated in an improvised manner incorporating destructive, lethal, noxious, pyrotechnic, or incendiary chemicals and designed to destroy, incapacitate, harass, or distract. It may incorporate military stores, but is normally devised from nonmilitary components.” Typically, they are cobbled together using a hodgepodge of everyday gadgets, such as remote controls, mobile phones, pagers and garage door openers. Despite their often benign appearance, the impact of a detonated IED can be very powerful and deadly.

The statistics on IED attacks in Iraq illuminate the extent of the problem.

Newsweek reports that in 2004 roughly 1 in 3 soldiers was affected by IED attacks; Now, the numbers are 4 out of 5.

Time Magazine states that 48.5 of all U.S. fatalities in Iraq have resulted from IEDs

The Iraq Coalition Casualty Count has an interesting graphic on their website highlighting the steady climb in IED attacks against coalition forces following the fall of Saddam.

And there are numerous accounts reported in the news nearly everyday of Iraqis as victims of the deadly device.

Mapping the Changing IED Terror Landscape

So, where are IED attacks being carried out and how has this landscape changed over time? To answer this question, three heat maps were generated showing concentrations of IED attacks in Iraq for the years: 2004, 2005 and 2006. The data was extracted from the National Counter Terrorism Center World Wide Incident Tracking database and includes attacks against all nationalities; not, just Americans.

2004 IED Attacks

2005 IED Attacks

2006 IED Attacks

The graphics are revealing. In 2004 and 2005 attacks were fairly concentrated, occurring largely in the metropolitan area of Baghad and points north; the brightest spots on the views highlight these hotspots. Over time, the attacks show a mestastisizing pattern: a diffusion of attacks pushing further and filling in north and south of Baghad.

What Does the Future Hold? Pentagon officials say they have spent 6 billion dollars in trying to combat IEDs and new technologies are being deployed in the field to thwart attacks. It will be interesting to see if at years end, with 2007 data mapped, whether these efforts can help to quell the problem or if the problem continues to fester.

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