In the News

I'm sure everyone out there has heard speculation about the housing market bubble bursting. The US housing market has been going strong for years and has shown signs that it is slowing, and possibly even collapsing. Mortgage companies have been offering adjustable rate mortgages (ARM's) at super low rates, which spurred on the housing boom. However these ARM's don't stay at the low rate for the entire mortgage, after a few years the rates jump up causing a mortgage that was costing around $995 a month to cost around $1,330.

The collapse of this housing bubble could lead to wider economic issues for the US. Home Depot and Lowe's are cutting their earnings estimates because they are so closely tied in with the housing market. But these companies aren't the only ones that will feel the effects of the housing market, many of these mortgages have been taken over by third parties, such as Wells Fargo, Countrywide Financial, Morgan Stanley, Bear Stearns, and the two largest mortgage holders in the country Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

What the Data Says

I went to GeoCommons and Found a dataset showing the 500 zip codes with the most foreclosure filings. It looks like they most of the foreclosures are in the Michigan, Ohio, Florida and California. There are other localized hot spots throughout the country, but the Northeast and Northwest seem to be doing pretty well.

I'm very curious to see how the foreclosures are going to spread, as more and more people start to get hit by their ARM's. There will obviously be more foreclosures where there are more houses, but New York so far seems relatively unaffected by the housing slow down, especially when compared to Detroit. I'm sure there will be future updates on this topic, so stay tuned. To visit the original map go here

Popularity: 2% [?]

Looking Back

It was a time of euphoria and not to mention instant, effortless wealth for many. The NASDAQ was soaring out of control. Hundreds of Internet and technology-related companies were making their facile entry into the stock market. Many of these companies saw their stock double within the first day of going public. Venture capital was being tossed around like Monopoly money.

Dot.com companies were agglomerating like “birds of a feather” in Silicon Valley and other so-called high tech corridors. Other technology and information-related companies were also thriving and all parts of the the nation found itself prospering.

The map below provides a visual perspective of this growth. It shows where Information and technology-related firms were popping up and where existing firms in the sector were expanding during the height of the Internet boom (1998-2001). The source of the data is the U.S. Census and the data is reported at the county level.

It was, as Robert Schiller noted, “irrational exuberance.” In March of 2001, the market eventually crashed. Companies like Pets.com had become tremendously overvalued in the market, their revenue projections were set unrealistically high and in the end they weren't making enough money to cover the heavy investments they had made at the onset of their companies and along the way to expand operations.

Web 2.0 Mania and A Little Bit of Politics

Now, some seven years later, some are proclaiming “déjà vu!”. It’s the Web 2.0 craze and the emergence of a new breed of Internet companies centered around social networking, sharing, and interactivity. Web 2.0 terms like “mash-up”, wiki and blog are quickly making their way into mainstream vernacular and the number of companies that fall into the new-Internet are growing at a rapid pace.

Web 2.0 is gaining great momentum in the political arena. There is not a single 2008 presidential hopeful who isn’t in some fashion using Web 2.0 to promote their cause and foster dialogue. The Internet has essentially become a ubiquitous and omnipresent townhall meeting. And it’s paying off. Obama leads the pack. He has raised nearly 7 million dollars through this site My.BarackObama.com and from other online outlets.

The media superstar CNN recently joined hands with YouTube in a project that gives voters an opportunity to pose video taped questions for the candidates. The social networking site, MySpace, will be holding an unprecedented virtual primary early next year. And scores of blogs devoted specifically to politics, like wonkette.com, have populated the Internet.

Internet Boom or Bust?

Some are asking: Are we In the midst of another Internet bubble and impending crash? Some say yes but, many are saying no. Web 2.0 is different. In many ways, the distinction comes down to value proposition.

The dot coms of the 90's were highly overvalued and it was the companies who characterized the Internet and dictated the value that consumers were seeking. When Time magazine named the person of the year as "You", that made a clear statement about intrinsic value of Web 2.0. "We" are creating the Internet and what we believe to be value. To me, that's priceless.

Popularity: 2% [?]

In the News

Over the past week or so, I've noticed smoking and tobacco-related issues getting a lot of attention in the news. In the government realm, there are several bills entering congress next month, which if approved would give the Food and Drug Administration new authority over tobacco, including the ability to restrict the marketing and promotion of tobacco products.

On the international scene, the World Health Organization just had a meeting to figure out how to help the world kick the habit. The officials adopted stringent definitions of what it means to have a smoke-free bar or office and called attention to the fact that half-way measures such as designated smoking areas, air filtration or ventilation do not work. They also predicted that one billion people would die of tobacco-related diseases this century unless governments in rich and poor countries alike got serious about preventing smoking.

And finally in pharmaceuticals, Novartis just got FDA approval for its over-the-counter nicotine gum, Thrive, to help people stop smoking.

What the Data Says

Given all this attention, I wanted to investigate the trends of smoking in the United States. How are we doing in the fight to end the addiction? Well it seems as if we are making progress, even if it's not as quick as we would like it. According to the CDC, 1963 was the peak of US smoking with 4,345 cigarettes per capita. In 2004, that number had dropped down significantly to 1,814.

I went to GeoCommons to try to find some more specific data, to look at trends in specific regions and states. The dataset Cigarette Consumption by Youths caught my attention. Youth smoking seemed like a good indicator of whether we are changing opinions about smoking. I came across some interesting findings.

1. Alarmingly, in Louisiana 50% of middle schoolers have tried smoking, with several other states having percentages in the 40s. Also of note was the spread between states. Utah was the lowest with 11%.

2. Unexpectedly, females had higher rates than males in some categories. For example, among middle school students, 20 states had higher percentages for current female smokers than current male smokers. This was surprising since historically men have always been heavier smokers than females.

Further Questions

Having looked at the data, I am left with two questions.

1. What accounts for the difference between high-smoking states like Louisiana and low-smoking states like Utah? Is it education? Is it lifestyle?

2. Why has female smoking decreased at a slower rate than male smoking? In case you'd like further evidence, the CDC reports that 54% of men smoked in 1965, and in 2004 that number was down to 26%. In contrast, female use went from 38% to 22%. Perhaps it's the increased social pressure on females to be thin?

In searching for the answers to these questions, maybe we could make further strides in the anti-smoking movement.

Popularity: 2% [?]

You can't miss it. It's on TV, in the print and online, almost has the effect of a surround sound system. For the last several days media is abuzz with news of the pardon granted to Mr. Libby. Technically it's a clemency (commutation), does that matter? May be not. Some polls show that nearly 75% oppose the clemency deal. And since a future pardon has not been ruled out, we may not have seen the end of this.

The last time something like this erupted all over the media was in 2001, and then it was the pardon granted to Mr. Marc Rich by President Clinton. Technically the pardon was for superseding 1984 indictment.

Given that Article II, section 2 of U.S. Constitution states, "The president's power to grant reprieves and pardons is absolute”, one starts wondering what all this fuss is about?

If we go back in history there are thousands of individuals who have received (probably a well deserved) pardons. Our data team at FortiusOne compiled data from the Dept of Justice (DOJ) and then computed percent of pardons granted by each President since Truman. The list below shows the total petitions received by each President, the total months in the office, the number of pardons granted by each President and percentage of granted pardons (inside parentheses).

1. Truman: 5,030 petitions, 93 months in office, pardons granted 1,913 (38%).

2. Eisenhower: 4,100 petitions, 96 months in office, pardons granted 1,110 (27%)

3. Kennedy: 1,749 petitions, 34 months in office, pardons granted 472 (27%)

4. Johnson: 4,537 petitions, 62 months in office, pardons granted 960 (21%)

5. Nixon: 1,699 petitions, 67 moths in office, pardons granted 892 (53%)

6. Ford: 978 petitions, 29 months in office, pardons granted 382 (39%)

7. Carter: 1,581 petitions, 48 months in office, pardons granted 534 (34%)

8. Reagan: 2,099 petitions, 96 months in office, pardons granted 393 (~19%)

9. Bush Sr.: 731 petitions, 48 months in office, pardons granted 74 (10%)

10. Clinton: 2,001 petitions, 96 months in office, pardons granted 396 (~20%)

When one compares the data from the above list to pardons granted by Mr. Bush; according to the DoJ website, President Bush granted pardons to just 76 individuals since he came into office, a remarkably low number compared to any other President since 1945.

We at FortiusOne Inc decided to map the spatial dimension of those 76 pardons. The map is based on the records extracted from the text of the monthly press releases of DoJ, which were then geocoded to the city locations.

Pardons granted by President Bush

It shows spatial distribution of the pardons. If you wish to explore President Clinton’s pardons, please go to GeoCommons and search for map/data with these key words Presidential Pardons.

In terms of total number of pardons, both President Bush and President Clinton (see the map below) are unremarkable compared to many other Presidents and yet they found themselves at the center of a firestorm over a single pardon/clemency in each case. However, there is one crucial difference: Mr. Clinton was leaving office when he faced the controversy, while President Bush still has a year and half left. That probably gives him enough time to recover from the current controversy. The flip side of these 18 months is: we at FortiusOne may be adding more data points to the current map!

Pardons granted by President Clinton

Popularity: 4% [?]

Today was a tribute to our nation, our independence and our great founding fathers. There are the obvious figures, like Ben Franklin, John Adams, John Hancock and Ethan Allen -- but, one that probably doesn’t come to the mind of many is Noah Webster. Noah Webster? Following the American Revolution and our nation’s transition to political independence, this historical figure recognized the need for a national linguistic identity and a language distinct from the mother tongue of the British colonizers. He was pivotal in setting the rules and standards for the English language that many of us speak around the world today and is the author of the book that we have all come to be very familiar with, the Webster’s dictionary. But, perhaps more importantly, he was central in helping this country to gain cultural independence.

While American English has yet to be declared as the official language of the United States, this could soon change. The issue is currently at the heart of the 2008 presidential debates. On the side of the democrats, all candidates excluding Mike Gravel oppose legislation that would establish English as a mandated language. The Republicans, on the other hand, have taken a quite different position. When asked by Wolf Blitzer in one of the recent GOP political debates, “who doesn't believe English should be the official language of the United States”, all were silent except for John McCain.

Central to this debate is the immigration issue and what some believe is a growing language gap. Certainly, there is plenty of evidence to show that the United States is becoming a more ethnically diverse nation, but to what extent is the growing ethnic population actually linguistically isolated from society? The map below shows the geographic distribution of linguistically isolated Spanish speaking households by county (Source: U.S. Census, 2000).

Not surprising, some of the greatest concentrations show up in metropolitan areas in the south and south west. The top three counties in terms of the numbers are Los Angeles, CA; Miami-Dade, FL; Harris, TX. Although, one can also see that there are many other parts of the nation with linguistically isolated Spanish speaking households. Pan across the map to explore at a geographically detailed level, where these concentrations are across America.

A look at percentages, rather than numbers, shows a slightly different perspective on things. Spanish speaking Linguistically isolated households comprise only 2% of all households in the United States. And of those households who consider Spanish to be their primary language, only 24% do not speak English at all. Coming back to history and our founding fathers, I wondered...if Noah Webster were still alive today, how would he side on the issue and how in the current context would he characterize "cultural independence."

How do you weigh in on the issue?

Want to explore further our nation's linguistic landscape?

Go to geocommons and in the find tab type in the key word "language." The dataset, "Linguistically Isolated Households in the United States" has information on other languages spoken by households in the U.S. and how many of these are linguistically isolated.

Popularity: 3% [?]