Over the past week or so, I've noticed smoking and tobacco-related issues getting a lot of attention in the news. In the government realm, there are several bills entering congress next month, which if approved would give the Food and Drug Administration new authority over tobacco, including the ability to restrict the marketing and promotion of tobacco products.

On the international scene, the World Health Organization just had a meeting to figure out how to help the world kick the habit. The officials adopted stringent definitions of what it means to have a smoke-free bar or office and called attention to the fact that half-way measures such as designated smoking areas, air filtration or ventilation do not work. They also predicted that one billion people would die of tobacco-related diseases this century unless governments in rich and poor countries alike got serious about preventing smoking.

And finally in pharmaceuticals, Novartis just got FDA approval for its over-the-counter nicotine gum, Thrive, to help people stop smoking.

What the Data Says

Given all this attention, I wanted to investigate the trends of smoking in the United States. How are we doing in the fight to end the addiction? Well it seems as if we are making progress, even if it's not as quick as we would like it. According to the CDC, 1963 was the peak of US smoking with 4,345 cigarettes per capita. In 2004, that number had dropped down significantly to 1,814.

I went to GeoCommons to try to find some more specific data, to look at trends in specific regions and states. The dataset Cigarette Consumption by Youths caught my attention. Youth smoking seemed like a good indicator of whether we are changing opinions about smoking. I came across some interesting findings.

1. Alarmingly, in Louisiana 50% of middle schoolers have tried smoking, with several other states having percentages in the 40s. Also of note was the spread between states. Utah was the lowest with 11%.

2. Unexpectedly, females had higher rates than males in some categories. For example, among middle school students, 20 states had higher percentages for current female smokers than current male smokers. This was surprising since historically men have always been heavier smokers than females.

Further Questions

Having looked at the data, I am left with two questions.

1. What accounts for the difference between high-smoking states like Louisiana and low-smoking states like Utah? Is it education? Is it lifestyle?

2. Why has female smoking decreased at a slower rate than male smoking? In case you'd like further evidence, the CDC reports that 54% of men smoked in 1965, and in 2004 that number was down to 26%. In contrast, female use went from 38% to 22%. Perhaps it's the increased social pressure on females to be thin?

In searching for the answers to these questions, maybe we could make further strides in the anti-smoking movement.

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